Anglo Teck Merger Finalized, LME Copper Fluctuate Rangebound to Close Higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened and touched a high of $9,938.5/mt, initially fell to a low before rising, returned to a high during the session, then continued to decline and touched a low of $9,900/mt, before slightly rebounding in a "W" pattern at the tail end, finally closing at $9,916.5/mt, up 0.1%, with trading volume reaching 13,000 lots and open interest reaching 289,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2510 contract opened at 79,590 yuan/mt, touched a low of 79,490 yuan/mt at the beginning, then rose and touched a high of 79,710 yuan/mt, maintained rangebound fluctuations during the session, and finally closed at 79,600 yuan/mt after minor fluctuations at the tail end, down 0.14%, with trading volume at 20,000 lots and open interest at 173,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On September 8, Anglo American and Canada's Teck Resources announced an all-stock merger to form a new company, Anglo Teck Plc, expected to be completed within 12–18 months. The new company will be headquartered in Canada, listed on the London Stock Exchange as the primary listing, with secondary listings in Toronto, Johannesburg, and New York. The merger will integrate the Collahuasi and QB copper mine resources in Chile, adding 175,000 mt of annual copper production and achieving approximately $800 million in annual synergies. Anglo Teck will own six world-class copper mines, along with high-quality iron ore and zinc assets, further consolidating its position as a global mining leader.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On September 9, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2509 contract were reported at a premium of 20–160 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 90 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 79,720 to 80,060 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, the SHFE copper 2509 contract surged from 79,620 yuan/mt to 79,920 yuan/mt, then began to retreat to around 79,740 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread ranged between BACK30 and BACK60 yuan/mt, and import losses for SHFE copper narrowed to around 150 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to tomorrow, imports have not yet been fully absorbed, but low-priced cargoes are attracting downstream purchases. It is expected that downstream buyers will show strong counteroffers under high copper prices, and premiums may still decline tomorrow. However, warrants are relatively tight, and the discount for domestic deliverable cargoes is unlikely to widen further.

(2) Guangdong: On September 9, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 10–70 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 40 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 70–50 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 60 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 79,750 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 79,650 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt.

(3) Imported copper: On September 9, warrant prices were $53-63/mt, QP September, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $55-67/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $27-35/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late September.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 9, the futures closing price was 79,790 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums/discounts were 90 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, recycled copper raw materials prices were flat MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper prices were 73,400-73,600 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,689 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 915 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as copper prices gradually pulled back after the noon session, many recycled copper raw materials traders lowered their procurement quotations, leading to tepid trading during the day.

(5) Inventory: On September 8, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 550 mt to 155,275 mt; on September 9, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 155 mt to 19,081 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, according to preliminary benchmark revisions released by the government on Tuesday, US employment may have decreased by 911,000 people in the 12 months through March, or by nearly 76,000 per month. The data indicated that US job growth was far less robust than previously reported, increasing pressure on the US Fed to cut interest rates. After the data release, the US dollar index first fell then rose, and copper prices showed a corresponding "first rise then fall" reaction. Additionally, the Israeli military launched an attack on Hamas leaders, and geopolitical tensions boosted gold prices, somewhat limiting the upside room for copper prices. Fundamentals side, supply side, imported cargoes continued to supplement during the day, with traders actively selling, and spot supply was relatively ample. On the consumption side, downstream procurement sentiment improved slightly driven by the pullback in copper prices, but current copper prices remain at a relatively high level, and enterprises' fear of high prices has not completely subsided, so the pace of consumption recovery is relatively slow. Overall, although the macro front shows a slightly bullish expectation due to weak US employment data, the market remains focused on subsequent US inflation data to further gauge the US Fed's policy direction, but the constraint of weak consumption recovery on the fundamentals side persists. Copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]